The Herzliya Conference, hosted by the Interdisciplinary Center at Herzliya, has become Israel's center stage for the articulation of national policy by its most prominent leaders.
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Regarding the Israel Air Force's Syrian nuclear weapons raid, US Ambassador John Bolton said: "The daring and successful Israeli military strike… has obvious significance for the potential of a military strike against Iran's nuclear program. I think, given the debacle caused by our National Intelligence Estimate, that it's close to zero likelihood that President Bush will authorize use of military force against Iran's program before he leaves office, absent some dramatic new development."
He concluded: "Certainly in Teheran you can bet that they took careful notice of what the Israeli Defence Force did. Penetrating Russian supplied radars very similar to the air defenses that Teheran has; using techniques that could be very useful for a long range strike against Iran; this is the kind of operation that the Iranians needIran may be leading in points but the final whistle is still far ahead. to continue to worry about. Because I think with the collapse of American policy, the Israeli strike against the Syrian / North Korea facility is the harbinger of what may be – absent regime change in Teheran – the last resort… Unless you are prepared to see Iran proceed unmolested toward a nuclear weapons capability, which this NIE has given them free rein to do in my judgment, you are coming very close to a decision point in this country of whether you will use military force to stop Iran."
He believes that North Korea is assisting 2 members of the US' list of State Sponsors of Terrorism in nuclear weapons development, Iran and Syria, which the US State Department wishes to keep hidden to protect the failure of their treaty agreement which removed North Korea from the Terror Sponsors list.
Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz hinted Tuesday that the probability of an Israeli military strike against Iran has increased given "the deterioration of efforts to stop Iran diplomatically."
"The diplomatic timetable is running short and thus the next two years are critical for stopping Iran through diplomatic means."
Mofaz, who also served as defense minister as well as chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, was quoted in Ha'Aretz newspaper as saying, "Reality is complex but the picture is very clear: Iran may be leading in points but the final whistle is still far ahead… It is clear that the current trend must be reversed; and all the means are justified. This is a historical time… This time, no leader will be able to say 'we didn't know, we didn't understand the importance of this time.' The world must do everything that is necessary in order to assure a future of peace and prosperity for the next generations as well."
I am coming to respect John Bolton immensely. But, I think he significantly overstates the probability of a U.S. strike against Iran in the next year.
ReplyDeleteToday, 01/22/08, in response to global economic panic yesterday (MLK day, a holiday in the U.S.), the Fed lowered the discount rate 0.75 percent. May not sound like much, but it's more than (based on an admittedly quick Internet check) the Fed has ever done in the last 25 years.
And yet, despite the Fed's action, the S&P 500 fell more than one percent, and the Nasdaq fell more than 2 percent for the day. (The S&P is down more than 16 percent in the last 3 months.)
To put it crudely, the Fed shot its wad, but the shot did not bear fruit. Accordingly, even if the threat from Iran were UNDENIABLY IMMEDIATE, the U.S. no longer possesses the economic strength that is a necessary precondition for any substantial foreign military action. The U.S. will struggle economically even to fund the troop strength in Iraq required to consolidate our recent gains there.
And so, as was perhaps inevitable, Israel stands alone.
Joe, your point about the US economic weakness may be valid. But if you read the transcripts or watch the video(s), where did you find Bolton stating the probability of a US strike? I perceived him to be apologizing for the failure of the US to strike - and encouraging Israel to strike - as did Norman Podhoretz to pre-empt the "Apocalyptic possibility - all too realistic."
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think?
That was a FAST response!!! I love it!
ReplyDeleteI read the Bolton transcript here: http://www.herzliyaconference.org/Eng/_Articles/Article.asp?ArticleID=2028&CategoryID=248
He says it's about a zero percent chance...I was being cute in saying the chance is not even that great.
If I were to commend one stock to you to keep an eye on, it would be this one:
http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=0&chds=1&chdv=0&chvs=Logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1201057033000&chddm=1001351&q=NYSE:C
And, I think the world of Norman Podheretz (subscribe to Commentary Magazine)
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/printArticle.cfm/Stopping-Iran-br--Why-the-Case-for-Military--Action-Still-Stands-11085
But, but, but...Ahmadinejad is not far off in his estimate of the valuation of the U.S. dollar.
Dear Joe Sixpack,
ReplyDeleteWhat does Ahmad say about the US dollar?
What is his country and their allies doing to devalue it?
Why would the Arabs buy into Citibank, et al, if they're aiming to devalue the petro-dollar?
And why, after posting such a loss, would you recommend buying their stock, mon ami?
BTW, aren't you writing this from the London ICE? Por quois pas?
I'm A Dinner Jacket said the U.S. dollar isn't worth the paper it's printed on.
ReplyDeleteAnd I didn't recommend to buy Citigroup; in fact, I think C is radioactive. I said to keep an eye on C because it is the present-tense GM: As goes C, so goes the nation.