Would weakening American support for Israel end the global Jihad?In the Jerusalem Post, CEO of private intelligence supplier, Stratfor, Dr. George Friedman, takes on the myths by Profs. Mearsheimer and Walt about ending Jihad by weakening America's support for Israel.
"Do Israeli interests diverge from US interests to the extent that the Israel lobby is taking US foreign policy in directions it wouldn't go otherwise, in directions that counter the US national interest? ...
It wasn't the (British vs German) lobbying interest (for the U.S. involvement on their side in WWII), massive though it was, but geopolitical necessity that drove US intervention.
Has the Israel lobby caused the United States to act in ways that contravene US interests? For example, by getting the United States to support Israel, did it turn the Arab world against the Americans? Did it support Israeli repression of Palestinians, and thereby generate an Islamist radicalism that led to 9/11? Did it manipulate US policy on Iraq so that the United States invaded Iraq on behalf of Israel? These allegations have all been made. If true, they are very serious charges. ...
Now we get to the heart of the matter. If the United States broke ties with Israel, would the US geopolitical position be improved? In other words, if it broke with Israel, would Iran or al Qaida come to view the United States in a different way? Critics of the Israel lobby argue that, except for US support for Israel, the United States would have better relations in the Muslim world, and would not be targeted by al Qaida or threatened by Iran. In other words, except for the Israel lobby's influence, the United States would be much more secure.
Al Qaida does not see Israel by itself as its central problem. Its goal is the resurrection of the caliphate -- and it sees US support for Muslim regimes as the central problem. If the United States abandoned Israel, al Qaida would still confront US support for countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. For al Qaida, Israel is an important issue, but for the United States to soothe al Qaeda, it would have to abandon not only Israel, but its non-Islamist allies in the Middle East.
Map of Islamist supremacist conflicts throughout the world (click to enlarge):
It has been said that the Israelis inspired the US invasion of Iraq. There is no doubt that Israel was pleased when, after 9/11, the United States saw itself as an anti-Islamist power. Let us remind our more creative readers, however, that benefiting from something does not mean you caused it. ...
Portraying the Israel lobby as super-powerful behooves two groups: Critics of US Middle Eastern policy and the Israel lobby itself. Critics get to say the US relationship with Israel is the result of manipulation and corruption. Thus, they get to avoid discussing the actual history of Israel, the United States and the Middle East. The lobby benefits from having robust power because one of its jobs is to raise funds -- and the image of a "killer" lobby opens a lot more pocketbooks than does the idea that both Israel and the United States are simply pursuing their geopolitical interests and that things would go on pretty much the same even without slick lobbying.
The great irony is that the critics of US policy and the Israel lobby both want to believe in the same myth -- that great powers can be manipulated to harm themselves by crafty politicians.
The British didn't get the United States into the world wars, and the Israelis aren't maneuvering the Americans into being pro-Israel.
Beyond its ability to exert itself on small things, the Israel lobby is powerful in influencing Washington to do what it is going to do anyway. What happens next in Iraq is not up to the Israel lobby -- though it and the Saudi Embassy have a different story.
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